Publications - 2009

"Downtown Parking in Auto City,"

Economics of food energy density and adolescent body weight

“Energy Efficiency Convergence across a Sample of U.S. Industrial Sectors, 1958-2000: Energy Shadow Value Approach,”

Environmental Economics and Policy: Canadian Edition

Hollywood Models

Marriage Market Imbalances and Labor Force Participation of Canadian Women

Nonparametric reanalysis of movie profitability

In this paper we use nonparametric statistical tools to quantify motion-picture profit. We quantify the unconditional distribution of profit, the distribution of profit conditional on stars and sequels, and we also model the conditional expectation of movie profits using a nonparametric data-driven regression model. The flexibility of the nonparametric approach accommodates the full range of possible relationships among the variables without prior specification of a functional form, thereby capturing nonlinearities and interactions without introducing possible specification bias. We find that marginal returns to budgets and opening screens vary over the domain of these variables. We also find that the conditional distribution of movie profit and the expected level of profit are related to the use of movie stars and sequels.

Petroleum refining industry in China

The oil refining industry in China has faced rapid growth in oil imports of increasingly sour grades of crude with which to satisfy growing domestic demand for a slate of lighter and cleaner finished products sold at subsidized prices. At the same time, the world petroleum refining industry has been moving from one that serves primarily local and regional markets to one that serves global markets for finished products, as world refining capacity utilization has increased. Globally, refined product markets are likely to experience continued globalization until refining investments significantly expand capacity in key demand regions. We survey the oil refining industry in China in the context of the world market for heterogeneous crude oils and growing world trade in refined petroleum products.

Robust analysis of film earnings

This article applies recently developed nonparametric kernel regression estimation methods to quantify the conditional distribution of motion picture earnings. The nonparametric, data-driven approach allows the full range of relations among variables to be captured, including nonlinearities that usually remain hidden in parametric models. The nonparametric approach does not assume a functional form, so specification error is not an issue. This study finds that the nonparametric regression model fits the data far better than the logarithmic regression model employed by most applied researchers; it also fits the data much better than a polynomial regression model. The nonparametric model yields substantially different estimates of the elasticity of box-office revenue with respect to production budgets and opening screens, and the model also has very good out-of-sample predictive ability, making it a potentially useful tool for studio management.

Screen wars, star wars, and sequels: Nonparametric reanalysis of movie profitability

Trade, Tragedy and the Commons

When the Elephant Sneezes: Implications of U.S. Fiscal Policy for Canada's Competitiveness