Fundamentals of uncertainty, risk, reliability and decision making in Civil Engineering applications. Probability as a measure of uncertainty based on frequency data; Bayes' Theorem; known probability distributions and how they apply to civil engineering problems. Fitting probability distributions to data. Advanced topics including applications of extreme value distributions, joint probability distributions. Monte Carlo simulations. Risk as a function of both probability and disutility. Risk analysis through Bayesian Decision Theory.
This course may not be repeated for credit.

Sections

This course will be offered next in Winter 2025.